In Gold We Trust Report 2021: Monetary Climate Change

On May 27, 2021, this year’s In Gold We Trust report was presented at an international press conference, broadcast live on the Internet. The authors of the report are fund managers Ronald-Peter Stoeferle and Mark Valek from the Liechtenstein-based asset management firm Incrementum AG.

The 340-page In Gold We Trust report is world-renowned and has been dubbed the “gold standard of gold studies” by the Wall Street Journal. Last year’s edition was downloaded and shared more than 2 million times. This makes the In Gold We Trust report, published for the 15th time this year, one of the most widely read gold studies internationally. In addition to the German and English versions, the report has also been published in Chinese since 2019.

In Gold We Trust report 2021
In Gold We Trust report 2021 — Compact Version

The In Gold We Trust report 2021 focuses on these topics:

  • Status quo of gold: price development over the last 12 months, important influencing factors, and trends in the gold market
  • Facets of “monetary climate change”
  • Why the current surge in inflation is not temporary
  • Inflation as a risk to equity and bond markets
  • Government debt reduction through”yield curve control”
  • Are commodities at the start of a new supercycle?
  • De-dollarization 2021: Europe buys gold, China opens a digital front
  • Analysis of a combined gold/Bitcoin investment strategy
  • The silver decade
  • A deep dive into the undervaluation of the mining sector

Additional chapters on the following topics:

  • An interview with economic historian Russell Napier on why he has switched from the deflation camp to the inflation camp.
  • On the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the “temporary” closing of the gold window, blogger “FOFOA” presents his views on the Nixon shock.
  • US analyst Lyn Alden contributes a guest editorial on the long-term debt cycle.
  • Robert Breedlove, one of the most respected philosophers in the Bitcoin sphere, lays out his views on gold through an exploration of the question “What is money?”.

Key Messages of the In Gold We Trust report 2021

A monetary climate change is emerging.

The term describes the multi-layered paradigm shift triggered by the pandemic and the policy responses to it. Profound changes in fiscal and monetary policy will have tangible consequences for the monetary system and ultimately for the population.

Increased inflation rates will not pass anytime soon.

At the center of Western central bank narratives on inflation dynamics is one term: that it is temporary. In our view, the current pickup in inflation rates heralds a fundamental trend reversal and we will see the introduction of “yield curve control” by central banks.

Real interest rates will remain negative for years to come.

The market environment favors real assets. In particular, equities from selected sectors, commodities, and precious metals should have a correspondingly high weighting in a portfolio.

Silver: main winner of both monetary and meteorological climate change?

The fundamental supply and demand situation presents itself as very solid. Many of the currently massively promoted “green” technologies require silver. A longer-term inflationary period — that we expect as a consequence of monetary climate change — could additionally provide a massive boost to the price of silver.

Gold and silver mining stocks remain highly exciting portfolio additions.

In 2020, the gold mining industry posted its most profitable year ever. While the gold price marked new all-time highs last year, the valuation of gold mining companies does not yet reflect their sharp increase in profitability. We expect gold mining companies to generate record high cash flows in 2021 and beyond.

Cryptocurrencies will not replace physical gold as an investment.

Due to its unique properties, physical gold will continue to play an elementary role in asset investment in the future. Nevertheless, the importance of cryptocurrencies and digital assets will increase, not least due to the monetary climate change. Portfolios with precious metals and crypto exposure can improve risk/return potential for investors.

Technical analysis

The Coppock indicator generated a long-term buy signal for gold at the end of 2015. The long-term cup-handle formation, which could now resolve soon, appears particularly interesting. The price target of this formation is USD 2,700.

Gold price 2030: USD 4,800; 2021 new all-time high

We are sticking to last year’s forecast for the USD price of gold at the end of the decade. For our conservative base scenario, we have issued a price target of
USD 4,800; in an inflationary scenario, even USD 8,900 is within the realm of possibility. Based on implied expectations in the gold options market, we see a 45% probability of gold reaching a new USD all-time high as early as December 2021.

About the In Gold We Trust Report

The annual gold study has been written by Ronald-Peter Stoeferle for 15 years, and jointly with Mark Valek for nine years. It provides a holistic assessment of the gold sector and the most important influencing factors, such as real interest rate developments, opportunity costs, debt, central bank actions, etc. Last year, the report was downloaded more than 2 million times. It is now regarded as the international standard work for gold, silver, and mining stocks. In addition to German and English versions, the In Gold We Trust Report will also be published in Mandarin for the third time this year.

The following internationally renowned companies signed on as Premium Partners for the In Gold We Trust report 2021: Agnico Eagle, EMX Royalty, Endeavour Silver, Gatos Silver, Gold Switzerland, Hecla Mining, McEwen Mining, Austrian Mint, New Zealand Bullion, Novagold, Osisko Gold Royalties, philoro Edelmetalle, SolGold, Solit Management, Sprott, Sunshine Silver, Tudor Gold, Victoria Gold, and Ximen Mining.

The Authors

Ronald-Peter Stoeferle is managing partner of Incrementum AG and responsible for Research and Portfolio Management.

Prior to that, he spent seven years in the research team of Erste Group in Vienna. In 2007 he began publishing his annual In Gold We Trust report, which has since gained international renown. Since 2013 he has held the position of reader at Scholarium in Vienna, and also speaks at Wiener Börse Akademie (the Vienna Stock Exchange Academy). In 2014, he co-authored the international bestseller Austrian School for Investors, and in 2019 The Zero Interest Trap. He is a member of the board of directors at Tudor Gold Corp. (TUD), a significant explorer in British Columbia’s Golden Triangle, as well as a member of the advisory board of Affinity Metals (AFF). Moreover, he is an advisor to Matterhorn Asset Management, a global leader in wealth preservation in the form of physical gold stored outside the banking system.

Mark Valek is a partner at Incrementum AG and responsible for Portfolio Management and Research.

Mark previously spent over ten years working for Raiffeisen Capital Management, most recently as a fund manager in the Multi-Asset Strategies Department. In this position he was responsible for inflation- hedging strategies and alternative investments and managed portfolios with a volume of several hundred million euros. Since 2013 he has held the position of reader at Scholarium in Vienna, and he also speaks at Wiener Börse Akademie (the Vienna Stock Exchange Academy). In 2014, he co-authored the book Austrian School for Investors. Mark has also been active as an entrepreneur; for example, he was co-founder of philoro Edelmetalle GmbH.

Disclaimer: This publication is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, investment analysis or an invitation to buy or sell financial instruments. In particular, the document is not intended to replace individual investment or other advice. The information contained in this publication is based on the state of knowledge at the time of preparation and may be changed at any time without further notice. The authors have taken the greatest possible care in selecting the sources of information used by them, but do not assume any liability (nor does Incrementum AG) for the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information or sources of information provided, or any liability or damages of any kind arising therefrom (including consequential or indirect damages, lost profits or the occurrence of forecasts made). Copyright: 2021 Incrementum AG. All rights reserved.

Originally published at on June 1, 2021.

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